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Risks as Growing Construction Pipeline Spreads Beyond New York City
The din of construction is rising across New York City. Apart from long-term endeavors that predate the downturn, including the rebuilding of the World Trade Center and Brooklyn’s Atlantic Yards, a...
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Price Declines, Losses on Legacy C.R.E. Loans Remain Factor for Many Assets
No one transaction can fully capture a market’s dominant trends. But even one transaction, however idiosyncratic, can serve as a cautionary note when the market’s investment and lending trends calls...
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Agency Loss Estimates Lack Independence, Verifiability
More than three years into the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, moribund housing-market conditions remain a drag on households’ wealth trajectories and their confidence in the broader...
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Expansion Has Slowed in Recent Months, But New York Economy is Braving Headwinds
If equity markets offer any indication, investor optimism in the outlook for business profits increased measurably during October. The Dow Jones jumped more than 1,000 points during the month, rising...
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Core Investors Unfazed by Global Crisis and Domestic Imprudence
The potential for disruptions to global financial stability increased heading into last weekend. In Europe, both Germany and the European Central Bank rejected calls to expand the bailout to include...
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Banks’ CRE Default Rates Fall But Balances Still Being Drawn Down
In its latest report on bank lending and loan performance trends, released this morning, Chandan’s tally of bank call reports shows that default rates on bank-held commercial real estate and...
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The Retail Recovery: A Work in Progress
Along the most coveted urban corridors and across core regional malls owned by the Real Estate Investment Trusts, retail property fundamentals improved in the third quarter. Sam Chandan Modest but...
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Improved Economy, Employment Spurts and Expansion in Cards for ’12
Following a tumultuous year on the domestic and global stages, the outlook for the American economy improved in the final months of 2011. The question of a double dip into recession has largely faded...
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The White House Spins it, Romney Pans it, and the Markets Put Up With It:...
Last Friday’s employment report, which showed employers growing net payrolls by 200,000 jobs in December, met with a tempered response by economists and policymakers. While local governments pared...
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Five Trends That Will Shape New York
The daily buffeting of confidence in the recovery’s resilience has demanded an unusual focus on immediate threats to commercial real estate investment conditions. Even in New York City, where...
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Global Slowdown, European Recession, Will Qualify US Growth Prospects
Even as measures of business and consumer optimism have improved in the United States, the global economy has struggled to extricate itself from a state of crisis. Fueling current headwinds, Europe’s...
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January Job’s Report Worth Cheering, but Jobless Benefits Up in the Air
New Yorkers’ restored enthusiasm is spilling out into the streets. Most of the revelers are undoubtedly celebrating our city’s Super Bowl victory. But a small minority—real estate investors among...
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New Projects on the Horizon Betray Sluggish Construction Growth
Announcements of large-scale development projects in some of the nation’s cardinal markets are fueling a shared illusion: space is already running tight. Most large metros can boast at least one...
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The Gordian Knot of Interest Rate Policy
The Federal Open Market Committee recommitted to its near-zero interest rate policy at its meeting in late January. Building on last summer’s announcement of a specific time horizon for its current...
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Pushing Past City’s Core Investments
In spite of a slowdown over the third and fourth quarters, transaction activity in Manhattan nearly doubled the prior year’s tally during 2011. Surpassing $20 billion in new equity and debt, investment...
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